Steel Dynamics
Waddup, my brothers, it's Gabe Azar, Managing Director and Head of Burrito rolling of the infamous Azar Capital Group. We out here doing crazy shit and wot not, but I am currently writing to you nerds from my L desk. Today I am writing about Steel Dynamics. Now sit back, you greasy bastards, and enjoy. And remember, buy low and sell high, my friends.
The former employees of Nucor walked into a bar in 1993 with nothing but industry knowledge and credibility, a business plan, and a deck that helped them raise $370 million. These apes go by Keith Busse, Mark Millett, and Richard Teets, and they didn’t inherit a steel company or spinout of Nucor; they simply built one of the most efficient steel operators in the country. Steel Dynamics was born in Butler, Indiana, using electric arc furnace technology and thin slab casting at a time when most of their competitors still fucked with the expensive, carbon-heavy blast furnace model. Steel Dynamics was born in an era where many of its competitors were filing for bankruptcy; during this time, SD posted nothing but profits. Today, Steel Dynamics is one of the largest steel producers in the United States, shipping nearly 16 million tons of steel annually. Unlike many companies, Steel Dynamics thrives in downturns; historically, they have been opportunities for them to widen their moat, acquire distressed assets, ramp production, and invest in the next growth wave as others are focused on keeping the lights on.
Steel Dynamics' stated vision is “a differentiated, sustainable, metals growth company.” Their differentiation comes from selling certified, value-added products that are able to command premium pricing and create switching costs. SD isn’t just selling steel, but steel with verified emission credentials that ESG virgins and procurement teams need. The Steel Dynamics electric arc furnace (EAF) model uses roughly one-quarter the amount of energy that traditional blast furnaces use. This makes them highly sustainable. ST is also growing beyond pure steel and becoming a metals platform, with the aluminum expansion being the clearest window into where management wants to take the company's future. ST has recently acquired a 2.5 billion dollar aluminum mill, as a strategic move to gain market share in the undersupplied North American aluminum. SD hopes to reapply the same EAF playbook in the aluminum segment. Steel Dynamics' management team has a 30-year track record of identifying assets at the right point in a cycle and patiently waiting to pounce on them when the deal makes sense.
Major bull cases include tariffs, increased demand, and favorable government policy from the CHIPS Act, the Infrastructure and Jobs Act, plus an increased defense budget. These aren’t temporary tailwinds but long-term plays that will make foreign steel less competitive and certified supplies like SD more essential to any company building or manufacturing within the United States. Steel Dynamics backlog is growing quickly, as when a developer for a data center, defense contractor, or some shit needs some steel, the sourcing decision is now starting with American players, and the pool of qualified domestic suppliers is not large. The risks are real, though, as the Steel industry is a highly cyclical business, and the tariff regime that is currently creating positive tailwinds can be modified, negotiated away, or undermined by policymakers. The company noted a small operating loss due to its new aluminum operations in Q1 of 2026, but this is manageable as the steel segment's operating income was nearly $600 million in the same quarter. Though the company's path to $700 million in EBITDA from its aluminum segment will require flawless execution through several commissioning phases, automation processes, and customer ramp timelines.
Steel Dynamics has four core business segments that function more like interlocking gears rather than separate divisions. Its steel operations are its core business, generating $3.54 billion in net sales in Q1 of 2026. The metals recycling operation is another segment that has historically been underappreciated and undervalued by many analysts. Its recycling operations segment posted nearly $50 million in operating income, a 155% jump driven by higher selling values for ferrous and nonferrous metals. This creates another moat for Steel Dynamic, as it enables them to control their supply chain output and manage costs. Its recycling operation is something that no other domestic steel producer has integrated into its supply chain. Its steel fabrication segment, which produces joists, girders, and deck products, is a major demand amplifier with a growing backlog. Its fourth and newer segment, alumnum, is currently a loss leader for the company, with the company projecting massive demand increases throughout 2026.
The American steel industry is not what it used to be. Bloated integrated mills, imported competition, and eating market share have been replaced by domestic steel facilities, which have undergone a massive transformation driven by the minimill revolution and the US becoming home to the most cost-competitive steel producers in the world. The U.S. iron and steel output is expected to grow 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, with domestic producers gaining massive revenue and market share due to tariff-related pricing. A major differentiation within the industry is between electric arc furnace producers and legacy blast furnace operators. Several plays are playing out that are making EAF the dominant steelmaking technology over the next few decades, which include carbon regulation, scrap availability, and grid decarbonization. Blast furnace operators face brutal problems like capital-intensive plants, carbon-heavy, and increasingly expensive to run as energy and carbon compliance costs rise. EAF producers can increase or decrease production quickly, use recycled scrap as a primary input, and generate a fraction of the emissions per ton of steel produced. Within the U.S., the steel competitive landscape is concentrated at the top level with Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and Nippon Steel / U.S Steel being the largest players, although there are a handful of smaller regional and specialty players that fill the rest of the market.
The steel industry breaks down into several different product and end market segments that all operate with different use cases and demand cycles. Flat-rolled steel products are a broader category that includes hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, and coated products. This is the largest and most economically sensitive segment. It feeds automotives, appliances, construction, and manufacturing sectors. The structural segment, which is critically important for infrastructure and construction, is seeing an increased demand due to the increased infrastructure spending wave with projects like the I-10 Calcasieu River Bridge, the Brent Spence Bridge Corridor, LNG export terminals, and other large pipeline projects that are scheduled for 2026. Railroad rails are another steel segment that is currently seeing increased demand, as there is an increased push to move more goods domestically rather than through international supply chains. The data center segment is also rapidly growing as each data ranch requires nearly 20,000 tons of steel, and the steel consumed by these projects spans across the full product range, like the building frame, joist, and deck systems for floors and roofs, rebar for foundation, and tons of other shit that the data ranch requires.
The current tariff snafu is the most immediate tailwind impacting the steel industry, as it wasn’t just impacting price but was fundamentally restructuring the competitive dynamics of the domestic steel market. So now that any company building shit in America is sourcing a majority of its steel from domestic mills. The onshoring and supply chain regionalization story is another piece of the pie, as the COVID supply chain disruptions exposed the fragility of manufacturing networks. The reindustrialization movement isn’t just about supply chain risks or costs but about reliability, shortened lead times, and the ability to qualify suppliers. As certified suppliers with consistent quality, short lead times, and verified credentials, can charge a premium as manufacturers can’t afford supply chain disruptions. AI infrastructure is currently the most exciting and fastest-growing demand-driven segment within the steel industry. McKinsey predicts that data centers will require nearly $7 trillion in worldwide spending by 2030. This investment is almost entirely physical, stuff like buildings, power plants, transmission lines, cool systems, and the roads that service them. Defense spending is also on the rise, as modern defense infrastructure, such as shipyards, military bases, weapons systems, armored vehicles, and naval assets, is steel-intensive and doesn’t fluctuate much with economic cycles. Revenue in this segment is extremely sticky as the procurement process is long, relationships with qualified suppliers are hard to disrupt, and contracts tend to be long.
The most important technology within the steel industry is more related to energy input than the steel itself. EAF steelmaking runs on electricity rather than coal, which means its carbon footprint is a lot smaller than that of non-EAF companies. As the US adds grid power, EAF producers automatically get cleaner without changing their steelmaking process. Although on the operational side of things, the steel industry is quietly undergoing massive digitization that is compressing costs and improving product quality. Advanced automation, AI-driven quality control, predictive maintenance systems, and digital supply chain integrations are all reducing labor requirements and increasing production output. EAF technology also enables steel producers to have tighter control of steel composition, making it more suitable for demanding specifications like automotive and energy applications. The disruption risk is worth noting as the search for alternative materials is increasing, with high strength aluminum, carbon fiber composites, and advanced concrete all gaining traction in use cases where steel once had no competition. This risk is measured in decades, though, as engineering standards, supply chains, and workforce skills are all built around steel.
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The domestic steel industry, like most industries, is led by several top dog firms like Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and the recently Nippon-backed US Steel, Cleveland Cliffs, and Commercial Metals Company. Nucor produces nearly 25% of the total US production capacity, which makes it the industry leader, while Steelio Dynamico has a nearly 11% market share. Nucor is Steel Dynamics' largest competitor, as they are one of the largest steelmakers in North America with 25 mills and top-ranked positions across the structural steel, merchant bar, joist and deck, metal buildings, and electrical conduit pipe segments. Nucor operates a decentralized management structure where mill managers have the autonomy, and their compensation is tied directly to production and performance. Nucor and Steel Dynamics are fairly similar beasts, although they have different operating margins and growth profiles. Cleveland-Cliffs and U.S. Steel are legacy producers, both of which have lower variable costs when steel prices are high because they own the iron ore supply, but they face higher costs than EAF producers. U.S. steel is transitioning toward the EAF model.
The most underappreciated competitive advantage of Steel Dynamics is its cost structure, which is built around its highly variable costs. This is from their scrap input costs, which move with steel prices, rather than from fixed iron ore and coal costs, creating a natural hedge that enables them to stay profitable across a wider array of price environments. The vertical integration into scrap recycling through OmniSource is a moat that many nerds are missing, although it provides a two-sided advantage, which is the cost control on the input side and market intelligence on the demand side. When Omni processes scrap from manufacturing facilities, demolition sites, and end-of-life consumer products, they’re not just collecting material but also building relationships with industrial customers who buy steel. Those relationships can create intelligence about demand trends that competitors who are buying scrap from third-party dealers can't match. The scrap market has been protected from the tariffs, as it has actually created a scrap supply surplus, which benefits EAF producers with established recycling infrastructure. Steel Dynamics also benefits from its certifications, such as GSCC, BIOEDGE, and EDGE. These qualifications take years to earn and create strong switching costs for customers who have built their procurement chains around certified suppliers.
Building a steel mill from scratch is no easy feat; it cannot be done overnight, nor can it be done for a couple of shekels. Building a modern steel plant could run a mfer nearly a billion dollars per million tons of annual capacity. That is also before you account for land, logistics, infrastructure, power grid connections, permits, and a multi-year commissioning timeline before the facility even generates revenue. Steel Dynamics has invested nearly $2.5 billion to build its Mississippi aluminum mill, which will bring in 650,000 tonnes annually. Those aren’t numbers that new market entrants can deploy without either deep backing or access to capital at scale. Even if they did have access to capital, they still would need permits and shit, which could take several years to get and several years to complete the build. A new market entrant trying to build a mill in the U.S faces strict environmental review processes and emission review processes that are required and can add tens of millions of dulls to the capital budget. The customer qualification process is a major moat; switching costs create barriers to entry as major companies don’t buy the cheapest metal, but they buy from qualified suppliers. The qualification process can take nearly two years, involving plant audits, material testing, production consistency verification, and ongoing quality monitoring. The scrap recycling network is another high barrier that almost no competitor can replicate at scale.
Financial Analysis (written by my AI analyst, shadowfax)
The income statement tells a story of a company that has structurally reset its earnings floor higher over the past several years while navigating the inevitable cyclical noise that comes with being a steel producer. Full year 2025 net sales came in at $18.2 billion — the company's fourth-best revenue year on record — with consolidated operating income of $1.5 billion and net income of $1.2 billion despite steel prices spending most of the year below their 2021-2022 peaks. Then Q1 2026 happened, and it's worth spending a moment on just how significant those numbers are: $5.2 billion in quarterly net sales, $538 million in operating income, $403 million in net income, and $700 million in adjusted EBITDA — all representing dramatic improvements over both the sequential quarter and the prior year period. Operating income jumped 73% sequentially, driven by record steel shipments of 3.6 million tons combined with metal spread expansion as steel prices rose $86 per ton while scrap costs only rose $22. That's the operating leverage model working exactly as designed. The trailing twelve-month EBITDA is running at approximately $2.4 billion and climbing, and with the aluminum segment progressing toward profitability and the steel segment carrying strong momentum into Q2, the full-year 2026 earnings trajectory looks materially higher than the 2025 base. The gross margin profile — running at roughly 14.7% in Q1 2026 on $763 million of gross profit against $5.2 billion in sales — is admittedly compressed compared to the 2021-2022 peak years when metal spreads were exceptionally wide, but the key insight is that this level of gross profitability is being achieved with a considerably larger revenue and volume base than the company had two years ago, which means the absolute earnings power has grown even as the percentage margins have normalized.
Steel Dynamics' balance sheet is not the most exciting topic in the world until you compare it to the competitive alternatives, at which point it becomes one of the more compelling things about the company. As of March 31, 2026, total assets stood at $16.7 billion against total liabilities of $7.6 billion, leaving total Steel Dynamics equity of $9.2 billion and a retained earnings balance of $16 billion that reflects three decades of consistent profitability being reinvested and returned to shareholders. Net debt sits at approximately $3.5 billion, giving a net leverage ratio of 1.4x adjusted TTM EBITDA — well below the company's self-imposed 2.0x through-cycle ceiling and light years away from the strained balance sheets that have historically caused steel company value destruction during downturns. Cash and equivalents of $556 million plus revolver availability gives total liquidity of roughly $2.0 billion, which is the financial flexibility buffer that allows management to stay offensive in a down cycle rather than defensive. The debt maturity profile is deliberately staggered across 2027 through 2055 — no cliff-edge refinancing risk, a mix of shorter and longer-duration notes — and the company proactively raised $1.8 billion of new senior notes in 2025 while simultaneously retiring maturing debt, extending their duration and locking in rates before any potential credit market tightening. The asset side tells the growth story: net property, plant and equipment of $8.5 billion reflects the enormous capital deployed into Sinton, the aluminum mill, the coating lines, and the recycling infrastructure — assets that haven't yet reached their full earnings potential and whose economic value is therefore underrepresented by current EBITDA.
The cash flow statement is where Steel Dynamics’ financial story gets genuinely interesting, and it requires a bit of context to interpret correctly. Q1 2026 operating cash flow of $148 million looks modest against $403 million of net income, but that gap is almost entirely explained by two items: the $120 million annual profit-sharing distribution paid in Q1 every year, and $413 million of working capital build as receivables and inventory expanded alongside higher pricing and demand. Strip those out and the underlying cash generation is tracking well ahead of the prior year. The five-year average adjusted free cash flow — which the company calculates as EBITDA minus capex, excluding the spending on Sinton and the aluminum mill investment during their construction phases — has averaged $3.2 billion annually, a figure that has more than tripled since the 2014 Columbus acquisition and represents the compounded output of smart capital allocation over time. Looking forward, the free cash flow trajectory is set up for meaningful improvement: capital expenditures are declining as the major growth projects complete their construction phases — Q1 2026 capex was $138 million versus $306 million in Q1 2025 — which means the earnings from those newly built assets will start converting to cash rather than being recycled immediately into construction. The FCF yield on current market cap, running at roughly 6-7% on a normalized basis, sits in a reasonable range for a company with this quality of earnings and growth trajectory, though it reflects the premium the market is currently assigning to the secular demand story.
The ratio picture for Steel Dynamics is one of a company that screens as expensive on trailing multiples but considerably more reasonable on a forward basis once the aluminum ramp is factored in. The trailing P/E sits at approximately 23.8x with a forward P/E of 13.6x, an EV/EBITDA of 15.4x, a price-to-book of 3.1x, ROE of 13.3%, and ROIC of approximately 9.6% on a trailing basis. The gap between trailing and forward P/E is the key number — it implies the market is pricing in a significant earnings step-up over the next twelve months, which is exactly what the aluminum contribution and continued steel demand strength would produce if management's guidance proves accurate. The ROIC figure deserves context: the trailing 9.6% reflects a period that includes heavy construction spending on assets not yet generating returns, which is why the three-year average ROIC of 13-14% that management uses as their primary metric is more instructive — it smooths through the capital deployment cycle and shows the underlying business generates returns well above any reasonable estimate of the cost of capital. Compared to peers, Nucor trades at a larger market cap of approximately $43 billion versus Steel Dynamics’ $28 billion, with similar EAF-based business models, but Steel Dynamics consistently demonstrates higher operating margins and a more focused growth profile — meaning the relative valuation discount to Nucor is difficult to justify purely on operational grounds. Cleveland-Cliffs, the legacy integrated producer, trades at a meaningful discount to both on essentially every metric, which accurately reflects the structural disadvantage of running blast furnaces in a carbon-conscious and increasingly tariff-complex world.
Steel Dynamics’ capital allocation playbook is one of the cleaner examples in the industrial sector of a management team that actually does what they say they're going to do, year after year, regardless of where the cycle is. Over the last five years, the company generated $13.4 billion in operating cash flow and deployed it across $6.7 billion in growth investment and $7.8 billion in shareholder returns — a roughly 50/50 split between reinvesting in the business and giving money back to shareholders that has compounded into a 398% five-year total return versus the S&P 500's 96%. The dividend has increased for fourteen consecutive years, growing at a 15% CAGR per share, with the most recent increase being a 6% raise in Q1 2026 to $0.53 per quarter — and management's stated philosophy is that the dividend increases should compound alongside the structural earnings growth from new capacity, making it a signal of confidence rather than just a shareholder gift. The buyback program has retired 35% of outstanding shares since 2020, a pace that has meaningfully amplified per-share earnings growth even in years when total net income was relatively flat. On the capex side, the company is deliberately transitioning from a high-construction-spend period into a harvesting phase: planned 2026 capex of approximately $600 million is dramatically lower than the $948 million spent in 2025 and the even higher spend during the Sinton and aluminum construction years, which means a larger share of EBITDA will convert to free cash flow in 2026 and beyond — creating the firepower to either accelerate buybacks, pursue acquisitions like the BlueScope North American opportunity, or both simultaneously given the balance sheet headroom at 1.4x net leverage.
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The push to aluminum is one of Steel Dynamics' most obvious growth plays. The company expects its Columbus mill to be running at 90% capacity by the end of 2026. Management previously noted that their target was 75%, which is a meaningful upgrade to their timelines. When that mill fully starts cooking, they expect it to add nearly $700 million in annual EBITDA, something that many professional analysts and experts are currently overlooking. Product innovation is another growth lever Steel Dynamics is taking advantage of with its upcoming BIOEDGE and EDGe product lines, which are low-carbon steel product lines. This product line features new certifications that many customers are looking for to meet carbon requirements within their supplier standards. The Sinton Mills' geographic location is another organic growth lever for Steel Dynamics as it sits next to a major railroad and a water port, which enables it to serve customers that previously the company could not serve. As manufacturing within North America continues from the reshoring hype trends, the mills that are closest to that demand will win the business every time.
Steel Dynamics has a historically strong record of M&A to improve the company's workflow and reach. Its acquisition of Omnisource is a strong example of this. Steel Dynamics dished out $1.1 billion to buy a scrap recycler, which gave them real-time intelligence on scrap flows across the Midwest, and eventually formed a backbone of the circular manufacturing model that its sustainability narrative sits on. Steel Dynamics has been focusing on acquiring firms that give it downstream fabrication exposure and direct relationships with nonresidential construction customers. Steel Dynamics has also acquired the North Star mill in Ohio, which is a quality, well-run EAF asset that serves automotive, construction, manufacturing, and agricultural customers. Steel Dynamics believes that its North Star can add 3 million tons of flat roll capacity. Steel Dynamics is also in talks with BlueScope to acquire it, although the deal has yet to close, but the Steel Dynamics management team has made several offers for BlueScope and believes the acquisition could add significant value to SD. M&A opportunities are more available than most people think, as the tariffs are stressing out smaller, less efficient players who don’t have Steel Dynamics' cost structure and access to capital.
One of the largest near-term catalysts for Steel Dynamics is the increased demand for aluminum. Steel Dynamics has plans to open a third cold mill by Q3 of 2026, along with the second cash line for automotive products, also coming by Q3. Once these facilities are producing at full capacity and the automotive customer qualifications are complete, Steel Dynamics' aluminum will go from losing $65 million a quarter to working its way to make the company nearly $700 million annually. The tariff story has more runway than the current market prices, as manufacturers are now incentivized to procure steel from domestic suppliers, which will create large backlogs for years to come. Defense spending is another major catalyst, with defense procurement cycles being long and sticky. Modern military infrastructure, including shipyards, bases, vehicles, and shit all continuously require steel. As the U.S. increases defense budgets for expansion and procurement policies are requiring domestically sourced goodies, the pool of qualified domestic suppliers is small.
Over the past several years, Steel Dynamics has made several large investments to increase its capacity, which include Sinton, new coating lines, and a facility in Columbus. This added roughly 25% to their bottom-line steel shipping capacity and created an entirely new aluminum platform. Steel Dynamics capex has seen a massive decrease as they went from investing in plants to actually producing steel and aluminum out of those plants. Steel Dynamics has invested nearly $300 million into a biocarbon facility to replace the fossil carbon input within its EAF steelmaking processes with cleaner-sourced biomass. Steel Dynamics has an extremely strong supply chain that starts with its OmniSource scrap metal collection. The OmniSource collects scraps from demolished buildings, junked cars, and other manufacturing waste, and then is passed into the company’s mills as primary raw materials. The finished goods then get sold off to those in need, who eventually make shit, and when that shit reaches the end of its life, it gets collected by OmniSource, and the cycle starts again.
Steel Dynamics physical supply chain is strategically positioned in ways that took them decades to build out and cannot be quickly replaced. The OmniSource network covers most of the Midwest, Southeast and extends into Mexico. This gives Steel Dynamics’ strong sourcing coverage across high scrap-generating regions. The Sinton mill also sits at the intersection of two major railroads, which gives it access to the Port of Corpus Christi, which makes it the only major flat roll producer that can ship finished steel to Mexico cost-effectively. Their Columbus aluminum mill was built in an area with sufficient acreage for customers to build their own processing facilities on-site, which reduces logistics costs, shortens lead times, provides working capital savings, and creates strong base-loading volume for the mill that floors utilization regardless of spot market conditions. For Steel Dynamic’s digital supply chain, they partnered with SMS Group, which installed automation systems that provide real-time control over the entire controlling process. This is most excellent for automotive customers as they don’t just want certified steel; they want documented, traceable data for every batch they buy.
While the aluminum mill is one of the most exciting things going on currently for Steel Dynamics, this also makes it the biggest operational risk. Steel Dynamics is currently in the process of building a $2.5 billion facility, still qualifying for automotive customers, and still running its third cold mill factory, all of which have lots of ways that could disappoint. Recently, in January, the company had to pause production and had to temporarily shut down a facility, which led to inventory write-offs. The BlueScope situation introduces a whole different kind of operational risks as Steel Dynamics has now made five separate approaches for BlueScope's North American assets at escalating prices. Although BS has rejected multiple offers, noting that they think Steel Dynamics is lowballing them. This persistence is a double-edged sword as SD believes that the BS assets are a strong strategic fit for Steel Dynamics, although it raises questions about capital discipline, as every dollar paid above fair value for BS is a dollar that doesn’t go to returning capital to shareholders or organic growth initiatives. The scrap supply chain is another operational risk, as EAF steelmaking runs on scrap. OmniSource provides significant insulation against open market price volatility; scrap prices can move sharply in a short period when large customers compete for a limited supply.
Steel Dynamics has a trailing PE around 24x, while the forward PE is chilling near 14x, which means that earnings from the aluminum ramp are materializing on schedule and at the margins management guided. If the aluminum segment hits its targets, things will look good; if the aluminum segment drags, forward earnings could take a hit, and the stock price could take a shot or two. China exports a fuck ton of steel, nearly 131 million tons in 2025, a record high, as Chinese steel is flooding into Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. This displaces what would be U.S. steel export opportunities and creates competitive pressure on global prices that hurts domestic players and customers through pricing negotiations. The Global Forum expects steel capacity to reach 630 million tons by the end of 2026, though if the tariff shift softens for any reason, the price premium that Steel Dynamics is currently feasting on could narrow quickly.
While it may not seem like demand is a real risk, the steel industry could stall if construction and manufacturing build hits a brick wall thanks to shitty regulations and bad policy. An economic slowdown from credit tightening, policy reversal on infrastructure spending could slow, which could impact buildout speed significantly. Pricing pressure risk is also real, as there is not much Steel Dynamics can do about it. The scrap side of things doesn’t always move in proportion with normal steel prices, which means a steel price decline doesn’t produce an improvement in input costs to cushion the blow. The environmental regulatory is another major risk as mf’ers are always pushing nonsensical policy that can hurt Steel Dynamics despite it being an EAF producer. The biocarbon facility operates under a biomass pyrolysis framework that hasn’t been tested at a commercial scale. At Azar Capital Group, we hate policy makers and the regulators; they are spineless apes that know nothing and have no ball knowledge.
Steel Dynamics is extremely well-positioned to eat steel demand over the next several years, especially as the company predicts that its new aluminum mill will hit 90% capacity by the end of 2026. The transition from the aluminum mill losing money to creating real recurring revenue is one of the largest narrative shifts for Steel Dynamics in 2026, and all it requires is execution. Demand is expected to grow significantly as earnings growth is forecasted to grow at a rate of 25% over the next few years. This projection is mainly built around the increase in aluminum demand and steel pricing. Also, if Steel Dynamics is able to close the BlueScope deal, that could add significant flat roll capacity and building products to an already strong platform. However, if China accelerates its steel exports into third markets, that could hurt demand for domestic players. Or if the administration decides to soften its tariff policy as a part of broader trade negotiations. Lastly, if SD overpays for BlueScope’s North American assets, it would stretch the balance sheet from a reasonable net leverage to something not so reasonable.
Steel Dynamics has spent the last 30 years slinging steel products, building efficient steel mills, acquiring complementary assets, running everything with a performance culture that keeps costs low and quality high, and returning cash flow to shareholders while reinvesting in the next stage of growth. As the Stinton mill turns from a cash consumer to a cash generator, Steel Dynamics is in an excellent position to lock up demand in an environment where demand is on the rise from onshoring, data centers, defense spending, tariff protection, and shit. Although the risks are real as tariffs can change, and the aluminium demand could be less than what was previously expected. But at the end of the day, Steel Dynamics is one of the best operators in the steel game with a circular supply chain, a diversified product mix, nearly debt-free, a brand-spankin' new aluminum that's about to be profitable, and demand that is on the rise. As the bad boys at Azar Capital Group noted previously, robots still need wire, data centers need beams, and factories need frames.
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Great moments are born in great opportunity, and that's what you have here, that's what you’ve earned here tonight. Tonight we long, tonight we long shut them down because we can. Tonight, we are the greatest firm in the world. I don’t think anything is going to be hard. What is there to lose? There's nothing to be lost, nothing to complain about. I can’t think of anything that I would find stressful or could bring us down. This analysis is strictly for informational and entertainment purposes only and is absolutely, positively NOT financial, investment, legal, or professional advice of any kind. It’s not a golden ticket, a sure bet, or a substitute for your own brainpower. Markets are a rollercoaster, and losses can hit harder than a freight train—consider yourself warned. Investors must do their own hardcore due diligence, dig into the details, and/or consult a licensed financial advisor, accountant, lawyer, or whoever else you trust before even thinking about making investment decisions. Past performance? The author, this platform, and anyone remotely connected to this content take zero responsibility for your financial moves, wins, or wipeouts. Instead of looking up to Thomas Jefferson, or looking up to Nikola Tesla, or looking up to Magellan, I mean, kids, Magellan is a lot COOLER than Justin Bieber! He circumnavigated with one ship the entire planet! He was killed by wild natives before they got back to Portugal! And when they got back, there was only like eleven people alive of the two hundred and something crew, and the entire ship was rotting down to the waterline! That's destiny! That's will! That's striving! That's being a trailblazer! An explorer! Going into space! Mathematics! Quantum mechanics! The secrets of the universe! It's all there! Life is fiery with its beauty. It's incredible detail tuning in to it. Unlock your human potential, defeat the globalists who want to shutter your mind. I want to see you truly live, I want to see you be who you truly are! I don’t want my progyny whos coming, my unborn grandchildren and great grandchildren to live in this nightmare system these control freaks created. Thats why I don’t have fear, I only have fear of myself and my flesh and not being up to the challenge. I ask you to look in the mirror and ask yourself, what are you doing in this time of great challenge, what are you doing to unlock minds? Once you unlock a mind, once you unlock somebody, then they can unlock their soul. Just let the regulators know that we have a finite time on this planet, and you can be viciously mediocre, you can get after it. And to the haters, we have been honed into a machine of lethal moving parts that you would be wise to avoid if you know what's good for you. We will not be intimidated, we will not back down. We've seen war; we don’t want war. But if you want war with the United States of America … someone else will raise your sons and daughters. I love burning the short sellers. Some also may say I'm not even a good trader, I'm just lucky. To them I say, what's the difference? Thank you for your attention to this matter. See you later, spacecowboy.